Playing Year End Tax Selling: Buying Starbucks

Starbucks Greenwich ConnecticutStarbucks came up on my year-end tax selling screen, so I decided to take a look at its valuation.  Everyone loves to hate Starbucks (SBUX – $21.20). The stock as been on a one-way ticket to hell, falling nearly 50% from its highs created by what I term the "Starbucks Bubble."  In my experience, when stocks go down like this (deflating a bubble) the stopping point tends to be a 50% drop.  But that is not why I chose to buy the stock here.  I bought Starbucks today because it represents value at only 19 times next year's earnings.  The stock also gains from the deflated dollar, as its earnings overseas are increasing.

Disclosure:  I own Starbucks (SBUX).  My last trade in Starbucks was a sale at a split adjusted price of $30 a share back in Jan of 2005  (yes, I missed the bubble).  I may buy more Starbucks and buy or sell options on Starbucks in the next few weeks.  I almost never drink Starbucks coffee unless I am on the road.  Jennifer Greenberg at Grounded Frothing a latteGreenwich Village (where I live) has too many quality alternatives where the owner of the cafe will be frothing my latte; my favorite is Grounded on Jane Street.  The Berkshires, the location of my second home, is another place with lots of alternatives and few Starbucks stores.  That leaves travel and road trips for Starbucks consumption.  And heck, I like it.  I like their sandwiches and I like that they try to make fair trade cool.  I could criticize some corporate behavior but, relative to most, they are great in terms of benefits, fair trade and store ambiance.

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Starbucks Greenwich, Connecticut photo by David Neubert via Flickr
Owner of Grounded, Jen Greenberg, Frothing My Latte photo by David Neubert via Flickr